The Liberal Party Leadership: The contestants

Before I go any further with this blog post, I want to say that I completely back Prime Minister Tony Abbott and I think that the Prime Ministership should not change hands like a casual position a fifteen year old does while they're paying their way through school or an 18 year old through university.  However, of course, we have to be realistic and look at the possible contenders should a spill arise.

Joe Hockey:
Hockey is Shadow Treasurer.  He first represented North Sydney in 1996 and has served in several capacities.  He's been Minister for Employment & Workplace Relations, Manager of Opposition Business, Minister for Small Business & Tourism, Minister for Human Services and currently serves as Treasuer.  A very senior MP, Hockey has a breadth of experience that could come in handy if he was to contend the position of leadership.  He has previously contested the coveted title but in 2009 did not receive enough votes so it went to Abbott.  Hockey is 49 years old and a family man.  He's faced some controversy, most notably releasing the budget on the day of the Martin Place terrorism incident.  He knows the Government books inside out and could easily make the transition.
Likelihood: 7/10


Scott Morrison:
Scott Morrison is a very controversial figure within the Liberal Party having previously been Minister for Immigration.    He was a strong Shadow Immigration Minister and when he served as Immigration Minister made some tough calls.  He is now Social Services Minister and is being criticised by those on the left side of politics for slashing and reforming welfare.  Given these issues, although he would be a strong Prime Minister he's not marketable enough and just wouldn't lead the Liberal Party to victory in 2016.  He is too firm which swing voters wouldn't like given the heavy reliance on middle class welfare.
Likelihood 4/10.

Julie Bishop:
Ms Bishop is Foreign Affairs Minister and has served in Parliament since 1998.  She is deputy leader of the Liberal Party, a position she has held since 2007.  She's held several portfolios under both Prime Ministers John Howard and current Prime Minister Tony Abbott.  She says she is not interested in the leadership.  There is a the small issue of her gender.  Anyone who recalls even 5% of former Prime Minister Julia Gillard's tenure would know that Gillard was horrendously criticised by the media for being a woman.  Bishop is a former Minister for Women's Affairs and no doubt she would face the same criticisms.  She would also face problems because she doesn't have children so what would she possibly know about childcare and paid parental leave given it's an issue she's never had to face.  She is a very strong Foreign Minister, so why would you move her from that position?
Likelihood: 4510

Malcolm Turnbull:
Currently Malcolm is Communications Minister and the MP elect for Wentworth.  He previously held the leadership between 2008 and 2009.  Turnbull is a supporter for the Republical Movement.  The Daily Telegraph reported in 2009 that he wanted to join the Labor Party in 1999, and was even approached by Bog Hawke.  He is a moderate Liberal and really belongs in Labor given his views on certain topics.  He would do the Liberals a disservice if he ever became the leader again.  He is a failed leader so having failed once, what's to say he would succeed?  

Likelihood: 2/10.

As you can see although there are a few capable MPs only the current Prime Minister Tony Abbott has the strength of character and intellect to lead the country.  Abbott is a principled man who stands by his belief system and rarely he will back down.  He backed down on paid parental leave, which was previously his trademark policy.  Given he heavily tore into Labor over their leadership woes Abbott won't be going without a fight.  He is also the only one who could take the party from a loss at the 2010 election to a win at 2013.  That has to be commended.  Abbott still, as he admitted this week does have a lot to learn about being Prime Minister.

All in all though, Abbott is the best person for the job and to sack him internally would be disasterous for the Liberal Party.  The only MPs who don't see that are rogues like Arthur Sinodinos and Mal Brough (who you may remember from the Peter Slipper scandal back in 2012).