The new National Party lineup

I've stated this previously, not on this blog, but in general. I am not a fan of Simon Bridges being the new National Party leader. From my point of view he is too weak and "Labour lite". That is to say that although he appears to be a social conservative (anti abortion, anti same sex marriage, anti euthanasia) he is an economic liberal and pro the environment.

As someone who is "hard right" meaning I am on the far right side of the political spectrum I find the idea of an economic liberal leading the party to be contradictory. Surely he would be better placed in the Labour Party. He is not the first National Party leader in recent years to be closer to the centre than the right.

This alone will not help National if they want to win the next election in 2020.

Today leader Simon Bridges announced his new lineup and there are a few surprises and a few predictable moves.

As we all know, Paula Bennett hang onto the deputy position, while leadership contender Amy Adams (who lost out to him) holds onto the number 3 position and the Finance portfolio. Another contender Judith Collins was promoted to number 4 and holds the Housing portfolio. This decision is excellent as Collins is a strong MP and is on the far right of the party, and will hold Labour accountable over the next couple of years.

Other MPs to get promoted include Jami Lee Ross who is now in the top 10. He sits at number 8 and has been in politics for over ten years. He holds the Infrastructure and Transport portfolio. He has slowly been moving up in the party ranks. I would say he is a future National Party Prime Minister. This is based on what I've seen of him over the last ten years and how he has progressed from winning the Botany by election in 2011 to his performance in the Young Nats when he was also sitting on the Auckland Council in the Hawick ward. He has always struck me as someone who is very ambitious and is well informed. I would not at all be surprised if he becomes leader of the National Party in 2024 or 2025 and then takes National to victory in 2026 (which is a long way off, but NZ doesn't tend to have one or two term governments).

Long term MPs Nick Smith and Gerry Brownlee have slipped down the ranks to 26 and 11 respectively. It is only a matter of time before they announce their retirement from politics. I suspect they will do this less than six months prior to the 2020 election so there is no by election in either of their electorates.

Quiet achiever Louise Upston has jumped to number 14 and holds the important Social Development portfolio, while Nikki Kaye retains Education and is now in the top 10.

First term MPs Simeon Brown and Andrew Falloon have been promoted to 45 and 46 respectively, while other newcomers Maureen Pugh and Nicola Willis hold 55 and 56. Willis holds the Early Childhood Education portfolio and Pugh as Associate Children's Shadow Minister. It seems odd that these portfolios are ranked so low given the importance that the Labour led government is placing on these areas. It is also odd that Horticulture and Associate Agriculture are held by the 54th and 53rd ranked MPs Lawrence Yule and Hamish Walker respectively. Given New Zealand's economy, I would have expected them to be given more importance.

It seems as if leader Simon Bridges is cleaning out the older MPs with David Carter, David Bennett, Maggie Barry, Nathan Guy and Michael Woodhouse all slipping down in the party's ranks.

This may be a winning formula for National, but given how far the party has lurched to the left I am expecting this to be an opposition party and there will be further shuffles before National sort themselves out and are in a position to govern again.

They need to do what Labour did after the Clark era and go back to their party roots. Right now it appears as if they've deserted their core constituents and have forgotten what they stand for. A genuine National Party would never place great importance on the environment or entertain the possibility of supporting the introduction of another tax. That is Labour policy.

Until National return to the right, they are not in a position to govern. This should be good news for Act though if Act can focus on economic policy, which is where the party has traditionally been strong.